How 2027 Can Be Won and Lost By Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

With less than two years until the 2027 elections, Nigeria is already gripped by political chaos. The Tinubu administration is scrambling to present modest palliatives and weak achievements as progress. Meanwhile, the opposition, especially the PDP, is disoriented—reacting frantically to defections and internal turmoil. Other politicians are trying to form alliances driven more by personal ambition than national interest. Citizens are disillusioned, watching as their democratic system is hijacked by self-serving elites.

The ruling APC seems focused on absorbing members from collapsing opposition parties rather than on governance. It's become a haven for political opportunists, rewarding defections with plum positions. The PDP, weakened by internal conflicts and poor legacy, cries foul but struggles with credibility. Despite the noise, most political strategies seem shallow, and the path to 2027 is likely to be unstable and contentious.

APC is compounding its problems by acting arrogantly, underestimating public dissatisfaction, and mismanaging communication. Its over-reliance on absorbing opposition figures may backfire, especially with a president who is widely unpopular. A better chance in 2027 could lie in replacing Tinubu with a younger, more dynamic figure—but that scenario is unlikely due to Tinubu’s dominant influence within the party.

The North will play a decisive role in the elections. Its vulnerability—marked by poverty and ethno-religious fault lines—makes it a battleground for manipulation. The South-West may offer only tepid support if faced with a strong northern challenger. The South-East, long sidelined, is likely to seek a genuine power-sharing deal. Peter Obi, though central to LP, risks diminishing his political standing if he missteps or loses his support base. His strength lies in his loyal following in the South-East.

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Atiku Abubakar, meanwhile, is in a difficult position—too influential to be sidelined but too weak to mount an effective challenge. Leaving the PDP again would be costly and risky. If he retires from the race, he could reposition himself as a political reformer, but that requires letting go of long-held ambitions, which is unlikely.

The PDP remains under assault from the APC, with Atiku both its strongest asset and greatest burden. His dominance creates division, and any hope for a coalition may hinge on him stepping aside. Without fixing its internal issues, the PDP risks becoming a historical footnote—a party that helped secure APC’s 2027 victory.

Ultimately, several variables will shape the 2027 elections: the APC’s performance in the remaining years, the opposition’s cohesion, ethnic and regional dynamics, and the credibility of the electoral process. The increasing interference of the executive in democratic institutions threatens the integrity of the elections. For democracy to survive, 2027 must be free and fair.

Source

Vanguard