Experts: How Iran-Israel Conflict Could Affect Nigeria

As fighting intensifies between Israel and Iran, Nigerian foreign policy experts and analysts have warned of potential consequences for Nigeria—ranging from economic ripple effects to diplomatic and humanitarian concerns.

The violent escalation, which has resulted in hundreds of deaths and widespread damage in both countries, stems from Israel’s recent large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Iran responded with waves of missile attacks targeting Israeli cities, killing civilians, including children. As the conflict widens, global leaders have urged restraint to prevent a full-scale regional war.

Energy Infrastructure Under Attack

For the first time, Israel has targeted Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, causing significant fires and halting production at some sites. Notably, damage was inflicted on the Shahran fuel depot and a refinery in Tehran. Also affected was the massive South Pars gas field, jointly operated with Qatar, which supplies two-thirds of Iran’s gas.

The strikes triggered fires at critical sites like the Phase 14 processing facility and Fajr Jam gas plant in Bushehr Province. These attacks are expected to disrupt global energy supplies and could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices.

Iran, which holds the world’s second-largest gas reserves and third-largest oil reserves, is now considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for nearly 20% of the world’s oil. Any such move could push oil prices even higher and rattle global markets.

What This Means for Nigeria

Ambassador Bulus Lolo, a former Nigerian envoy, emphasized the potential volatility such conflict could bring to oil markets, which may not be favorable for Nigeria in the long term. “Nigeria prefers a stable market for its projections,” he said. While oil prices may initially rise—benefiting exporters like Nigeria—he questioned how long such a spike could last.

Professor Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim, a political scientist at the University of Abuja, said Nigeria would feel the impact in several areas:

Oil Prices: Nigeria could benefit in the short term if oil prices spike due to supply disruptions in Iran. This mirrors past experiences, such as the oil boom during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
Imports & Scarcity: Products imported from Israel or Iran may become scarce, leading to price hikes not only in Nigeria but across Africa and globally.
Nigerians Abroad: Concerns have been raised about the safety of Nigerian students and citizens residing in either country. Evacuations may become necessary if the conflict continues to escalate.
Tourism & Pilgrimage: Religious pilgrimages to holy sites in Israel and Iran may be suspended. Shiite pilgrims, in particular, who frequently visit Iran, may be affected by the deteriorating security situation.
Diplomatic Ties: While Nigeria maintains bilateral relations with both nations, it has condemned Israel’s recent military strikes and joined global calls for a peaceful resolution through dialogue.

Professor Ibrahim further noted that international events, academic exchanges, and sports involving Israel and Iran would likely be paused, cutting off cross-cultural engagements.

Market Watch: What to Expect

Oil prices surged nearly 9% after Israel’s initial strikes and could rise again when markets reopen, analysts say. The possibility of Iran retaliating further or shutting the Strait of Hormuz adds to global economic uncertainty.

Alan Eyre, a fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera that Israel may be trying to draw the U.S. into a broader conflict with Iran. However, he added that Iran has limited military leverage and fewer global allies, making sustained retaliation difficult.

Daily Trust

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