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Get the latest NCM rain forecast Saudi weather outlook, rainfall predictions, storm alerts, and safety tips for regions across the Kingdom from the National Center of Meteorology.
As weather patterns shift and seasons change, the NCM rain forecast Saudi has become an essential point of focus for residents, travellers, and businesses across the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia — typically known for its arid desert climate — experiences notable rainfall, especially during winter and transitional seasons, and the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) plays a key role in forecasting rain patterns, issuing alerts, and helping communities prepare. In this comprehensive guide, we break down the latest official rain forecast, key regions affected, weather alerts, seasonal trends and safety advice so you can plan confidently in 2026.
Saudi Rain Isn’t What You Think
Saudi Arabia’s weather is often associated with scorching heat and dust, but rainfall — particularly in winter and transitional months — has a significant impact on life and infrastructure. The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) is the authoritative source for rain forecasts, issuing regular updates and color-coded alerts that cover everything from light showers to heavy rain and thunderstorms. Understanding these forecasts helps residents and travellers navigate the season safely and effectively.
What Is the NCM Rain Forecast Saudi Telling Us?
The NCM rain forecast Saudi reveals that a variety of weather systems are contributing to rainfall across the Kingdom at different times, especially in the cooler months. These forecasts include:
Rain Expected During Mid-Year School Holidays
The NCM has indicated that rainfall is likely to coincide with the mid-year school holiday period, with different regions under varying alert levels — from light showers to moderate or heavy rains that could affect travel plans and outdoor activities. Yellow alerts signal light to moderate rainfall, while orange alerts indicate more intense rain with strong winds and reduced visibility.
Color-Coded Alerts for Rain Regions
In early January 2026, the NCM issued orange-level rain warnings for parts of the Kingdom, forecasting moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds, especially in regions such as Tabuk, Madinah, Eastern Province, and Makkah. Moderately heavy rain can decrease visibility and increase risks for drivers and pedestrians.
Rain Forecast Across Major Regions
Recent forecasts show that light to moderate rain is expected in many areas including Madinah, Tabuk, Najran, Hail, Makkah and the Eastern Province, with varied intensity and accompanying winds. These rain predictions may continue for several days, and residents have been encouraged to monitor NCM updates online or via their official channels.
How the NCM Forecast Works: Alerts & Indicators
The National Center of Meteorology uses a color-coded alert system to communicate the severity and expected impact of upcoming weather:
- Yellow Alerts: Light to moderate rain, low visibility, possible thunderstorms and active wind conditions.
- Orange Alerts: Moderate to heavy rain potentially accompanied by stronger winds, near-zero visibility, and the possibility of flash flooding.
- Red Alerts: Severe rain, high risk of flash floods, hail and dangerous conditions that can disrupt travel and local infrastructure.
These alerts help individuals and authorities prepare and respond appropriately to changing weather conditions.
Which Regions Are Most Affected?
Saudi Arabia’s geographical diversity leads to variations in rainfall distribution, but recent forecasts highlight these trends:
Western and Southern Regions
- Asir, Jazan, Al Baha and Makkah: Frequently receive moderate to heavy rain during winter and transitional months, occasionally with hail and thunderstorms.
Northern and Central Areas
- Tabuk, Al Jouf, Hail and the Northern Borders: Light to moderate showers are expected, with dust-raising winds accompanying the rainfall in some areas.
Eastern and Central Regions
- Eastern Province, Riyadh and Najran: Forecasts indicate sporadic rain showers with the possibility of dust storms and wind-driven precipitation.
It’s important to check the NCM official website or weather apps for forecast details specific to your city or region, as conditions can vary significantly over short distances.
Seasonal Patterns: When Does Saudi Rainfall Peak?
Although rain occurs across different months, historical patterns and recent forecasts highlight certain trends:
Winter Rainfall (December – March)
Rainfall in Saudi Arabia is most common during the winter months. Forecasts have repeatedly shown thunderstorms, moderate showers and potential flooding across many regions during December and January.
Transitional Seasons (Spring)
Spring can bring localized rain and thunderstorms, especially in elevated areas such as Asir and Al Baha, which can receive heavier rainfall than the surrounding plains. In previous years, meteorologists noted peak rainfall activity in April, particularly in mountainous regions, with thunderstorms and showers expected.
Summer Rains (Rare but Possible)
Rain in Saudi Arabia during summer is generally rarer and often tied to specific weather systems or localized conditions, rather than widespread patterns like in winter or spring.
What to Expect: Rain Intensity & Impacts
The intensity of rain forecasted by the NCM can range widely:
Light Rain & Showers
Often accompanied by cloud cover and occasional rain, gentle showers help reduce temperature and improve comfort without major disruptions.
Moderate to Heavy Rain
- Can lead to temporary flooding, especially in valleys and low-lying urban areas.
- May cause road travel disruptions due to reduced visibility and water accumulation.
- Strong winds and dust storms can worsen conditions when combined with rainfall.
Thunderstorms & Hail
Thunderstorms — sometimes with hail and high winds — are forecast for some regions, mostly during dynamic weather systems moving across the Kingdom.
These intensity levels are essential to understand as they directly affect travel safety, outdoor activities, agriculture, and urban infrastructure.
Recent Rain Events Highlight Forecast Accuracy
In December 2025, reports confirmed significant rain in some parts of Saudi Arabia. For example, Jeddah experienced its second-highest rainfall in recent years, with the National Center of Meteorology’s data showing noteworthy precipitation amounts prompting infrastructure challenges and flood management responses.
Additionally, light to moderate rain has been observed in Riyadh, with official NCM figures clarifying that recent showers were not as severe as some social media videos suggested — highlighting the importance of relying on verified forecasts.
How to Stay Updated With NCM Forecasts
For the most accurate and up-to-date NCM rain forecast Saudi, residents and travellers can use the following trusted resources:
Official NCM Website: Daily forecasts, alerts and radar updates straight from the National Center of Meteorology.
NCM Social Media Channels: Regular alert posts and official advisories.
Anwaa Weather App: Provides localized forecasts, alerts and notifications backed by the NCM.
These direct sources help you avoid misinformation and prepare for expected weather changes with confidence.
Safety Tips During Rain Forecast Alerts
Rainfall in Saudi Arabia — especially moderate to heavy rain — can lead to safety concerns. Here are practical tips to stay safe:
Driving & Travel Safety
- Reduce speed and maintain distance from other vehicles.
- Avoid driving in flash-flood prone areas like valleys or low bridges.
- Turn on headlights in reduced visibility conditions.
Flood Preparedness
- Move to higher ground if water begins accumulating near your location.
- Avoid walking through floodwaters to prevent accidents.
Outdoor Activity Planning
- Check the NCM rain forecast before planning trips, hikes or outdoor events.
- Cancel or reschedule if moderate to heavy rain is predicted.
Adhering to official advisories ensures you stay protected during varying weather scenarios.
Looking Ahead: Rain Forecast Trends in 2026
According to recent seasonal outlooks from the National Center of Meteorology, January 2026 is expected to be wetter than average in several regions, with higher than normal rainfall activity extending across parts of northern, eastern, and western Saudi Arabia. Above-average precipitation is anticipated to continue into the first quarter of the year, alongside generally warmer temperatures.
These trends suggest a dynamic start to 2026, where rain, showers, and thunderstorms play a significant role in shaping weather conditions across the Kingdom.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does the NCM rain forecast Saudi indicate?
A: The NCM rain forecast Saudi provides day-to-day and seasonal rain predictions, including alerts for light to heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, wind and visibility conditions, helping residents and authorities prepare.
Q: Which regions are most likely to see rain?
A: Western and southern regions like Asir and Jazan often see heavier rain, while northern, central and eastern areas such as Tabuk, Riyadh, Eastern Province and Najran may experience light to moderate showers.
Q: How accurate are NCM forecasts?
A: The NCM uses advanced meteorological models and real-time data to provide highly reliable forecasts, but conditions can vary locally, so constant monitoring is recommended.
Conclusion: Staying Prepared With NCM Forecasts
Saudi Arabia’s weather — once viewed as predominantly dry — is increasingly influenced by dynamic rainfall patterns that vary by season and region. The NCM rain forecast Saudi helps residents, travellers and businesses navigate these changes with actionable insights, alerts, and daily predictions. From yellow level showers to orange level moderate rains and possible thunderstorms, understanding the forecast empowers you to plan smarter and stay safe.
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