Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Exit as On-Chain Metrics Flash Market Warning
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| Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Exit as On-Chain Metrics Flash Market Warning |
The crypto market is facing a pivotal moment as key on-chain indicators suggest that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are rapidly offloading their assets. Despite growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs and continued institutional investment, a shift in sentiment is becoming increasingly apparent.
Mass Distribution Phase Among Long-Term Holders
Joao Wedson, a respected crypto market analyst, recently warned that long-term holders have entered a significant distribution phase. According to his analysis, these holders—who traditionally accumulate during downturns—have now sold off an amount equivalent to 50% of all Bitcoin held by ETFs.
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This behavior is noteworthy. While ETFs continue to attract inflows, veteran holders and major exchanges still control a large portion of Bitcoin's circulating supply, giving them outsized influence over price movements. Historically, similar LTH selling patterns have signaled cycle peaks or reversals.
On-Chain Indicators Reflect Market Stress
Multiple on-chain metrics support Wedson’s cautious outlook. One of the most telling is the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Terminal Adjusted, which tracks the movement of long-dormant coins. Recent CDD spikes—three in the past two years—have each coincided with local market tops.
Another notable indicator is Reserve Risk, which has shown a rise in long-term holder activity, including transfers to exchanges—a potential precursor to selling pressure.
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These shifts suggest that some seasoned investors are positioning for a correction, regardless of bullish sentiment in the broader market.
SOPR Indicator Signals Growing Caution
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a reliable short-term market indicator, is now trending bearish. This metric assesses whether BTC is being moved at a profit or loss and often foreshadows directional shifts.
According to Wedson, the recent bearish SOPR signal emerged weeks before Bitcoin’s latest dip, indicating early profit-taking and potential market fatigue.
Learn more about how SOPR works.
This trend suggests traders should remain vigilant, especially as volatility increases.
'Alpha Savior' Metric Holds Off Final Market Top
Interestingly, one final metric—the so-called “Alpha Savior”—has not yet confirmed a full market peak. Historically, this model has been highly accurate in predicting macro tops. Wedson explains that until the blue trendline on this chart reaches the $69,000 mark, a final top may still be pending.
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Despite ongoing sell-offs, this signal suggests the current cycle may have more room to grow. Wedson anticipates Bitcoin's bullish trajectory could continue for another two months, with altcoins potentially trailing by an additional month.
Is a Correction Imminent or Just a Pause?
While Bitcoin continues to hover near key resistance levels, the growing activity among long-term holders cannot be ignored. As multiple on-chain indicators flash red, traders and investors are advised to monitor these metrics closely.
In this dynamic environment, tools like SOPR, CDD, and Reserve Risk offer critical insights into market psychology. However, with the Alpha Savior metric yet to trigger, the final chapter of this cycle may still lie ahead.
